Municipal Bond Analysis

Great Lakes Water Authority: Revenue Risk Assessment

Analyzing the Sewage Disposal System Revenue and Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2025 through comprehensive municipal intelligence.

Bond Overview

GLWA's Series 2025 bonds are payable solely from Net Revenues of the Sewer System—revenues remaining after Operation and Maintenance Expenses. Any factor affecting GLWA's ability to generate sufficient revenues or manage operational costs directly influences bond performance and security.

Strong underlying metrics: FY2024 debt service coverage ratios were 2.06x for Senior lien bonds, 1.54x for combined Senior and Second lien, and 1.24x across all bonds—exceeding required thresholds.

Revenue Generation and Customer Affordability

Financial Strength (Opportunity)

As of November 2024, GLWA held $152.8 million in cash and investments with a clean, unmodified audit opinion from Baker Tilly US, LLP.

Customer Arrears Challenge (Risk)

Despite affordability programs, customer arrears persist. 8,136 Lifeline participants entered with over $1 million in arrears, and the Lifeline program has exhausted its funding.

Revenue Underperformance

DWSD's drainage revenue was under budget by 3% for the month and 4.3% year-to-date, indicating potential pressure on Net Revenues.

Operational Efficiency Analysis

Municipal meeting intelligence reveals both efficiency gains and concerning operational issues. DWSD's drone-based inspection initiative saved $4 million within months, reducing data analysis time from nine months to 48 hours.

However, operational concerns persist: Only three of 15 JEDER trucks are active while external contractors may be filling the gap—raising questions about efficiency and elevated O&M expenses. DWSD was responsible for 5 of 29 gas line strikes, with 151 unresolved claims from a Southwest Detroit rupture.

Infrastructure Investment Strategy

GLWA is strategically reducing dependency on bonds by prioritizing cash and low-interest SRF loans. DWSD is pursuing a $20 million SRF loan for sewer rehab in North Corktown and Hubbard Farm, with potential for principal forgiveness due to Detroit's overburdened status.

“External funding success: DWSD secured $9 million from CDBG Disaster Recovery Funds and is pursuing $175 million from HUD to repair 13,000 alley sinkholes—alleviating pressure on Net Revenues.”

— Municipal Infrastructure Analysis

Risk Assessment Conclusion

GLWA's Series 2025 Bonds benefit from solid underlying financials, disciplined capital strategy, and favorable external funding pursuits. The authority maintains strong debt service coverage and substantial cash reserves.

Key monitoring areas: Customer arrears, aging infrastructure in Corktown, operational incidents, and regulatory compliance costs represent material risks to Net Revenues—the sole repayment source.

Key Metrics & Risks

2.06x Senior lien debt service coverage

$152.8M cash and investments

$4M saved through drone inspections

Customer arrears over $1M

Drainage revenue 4.3% under budget

151 unresolved rupture claims

Revenue Sources

Primary: Sewer System Net Revenues

Coverage: 1.24x all bonds combined

Strategy: Reduce bond dependency

Funding: Cash, SRF loans preferred

Regulatory Factors

NPDES: $18M 5-year mandate

Environmental: PFAS emerging risk

Cybersecurity: New requirements

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