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PENNSYLVANIA ST HIGHER EDL FACS AUTH REV

CUSIP: 70917TRV5

By &Evergreen TeamUpdated: Nov 18, 2025
NRCautious

Overview

Bond Name/Type: Pennsylvania State Higher Educational Facilities Authority Revenue Bonds – Thomas Jefferson University Obligated-Group (fixed-rate, parity gross-revenue pledge)
Top-Line Classification: Cautious (medium confidence)
Synopsis: a) August-22 FY-2025 disclosure shows a $196 million operating loss (-1.2% margin) after break-even FY-2024, driven by a $170 million Jefferson Health Plan shortfall (Signals 2-1); b) FY-2025 balance sheet records $1.64 billion new long-term borrowing and a $347 million principal maturity inside 12 months (Signals 3-15-16). With no debt-service-reserve fund and revenue-risk borne by the issuer, the swing into operating deficit plus sharply higher fixed obligations could pressure covenant headroom and force incremental bank-liquidity draws within the next 6-12 months.

Rationale

Baseline per Foundation Analysis
Structure: parity Master Trust Indenture with joint-and-several gross-revenue pledge; no DSRF; issuer – not users – bears revenue shortfall risk.
Primary risks: post-merger integration, operating volatility, leverage growth, near-term maturities.
Historical context: FY-2024 essentially break-even; leverage expected to rise for LVHN transaction but coverage presumed adequate.
Key Themes (signal weighting in parentheses)
A. Operating Deterioration (Audited financials – weight 2)
FY-2025 swing to -$196 mm loss ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Jefferson Posts $196M Operating Loss In Fiscal 2025 Staff Relief Inc; 2025-11-13)) and pro-forma -$197 mm deficit ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Jefferson Posts $196M Operating Loss In Fiscal 2025 Staff Relief Inc; 2025-11-13)) marks a clear departure from baseline break-even status. The loss is concentrated in the health-plan subsidiary ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Jefferson Posts $196M Operating Loss In Fiscal 2025 Staff Relief Inc; 2025-11-13)) and compounded by 59.5 % expense growth ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Jefferson Posts $196M Operating Loss In Fiscal 2025 Staff Relief Inc; 2025-11-13)). Because debt service must be paid from operating cash, this directly erodes coverage – a primary foundation risk.
B. Leverage & Fixed-Charge Escalation (Official statements/fin stmts – weight 2)
$1.64 bn new long-term obligations ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) and total bonds up to $5.08 bn ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) raise balance-sheet leverage beyond amounts contemplated in the foundation analysis.
Near-term pressure: $347 mm principal due in FY-2025 and current-portion spike to $363 mm (Signals 15-16) elevate refinancing/expenditure needs inside the 12-month window.
Interest expense up 74 % YoY to $201 mm ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) compresses margins further.
C. Liquidity Cushion—Material but Finite (weight 2)
Undrawn bank lines of $763 mm ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2024 (1); 2025-11-13)) and total one-year liquidity of $4.7 bn ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) provide flexibility; however, FY-2025 operating cash burn of $214 mm ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) and $181 mm net cash decline ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2024 (1); 2025-11-13)) show the cushion being used. Revolver draws of $3.7 bn during the year ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) evidence reliance on external liquidity.
D. Covenant Status & Structural Protections (weight 3 – trustee/rating references)
TJU remains in covenant compliance at 6/30/25 ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)) and benefits from a first-lien gross-revenue pledge ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)). These protections mitigate immediate default risk but do not offset sustained operating losses, as rate-setting is not available to pass costs to users.
Red Flags
Large professional-liability accruals rising to $979 mm ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)).
$1.0 bn unfunded investment commitments over next 3-5 yrs ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)).
No DSRF and covenant cushion undisclosed.
Given the magnitude of the operating swing and leverage spike—both primary risks under the foundation analysis—and the absence of automatic rate-setting or external support, the balance of evidence tilts to a Cautious stance despite liquidity strength.

Outlook

Base Case: Expect continued operating pressure as health-plan losses and integration costs persist (Signals 1-2-57). Management likely relies on liquidity lines ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2024 (1); 2025-11-13)) and potential bank market access to meet FY-2025 principal payments (Signals 15-16). Covenant compliance should hold absent further margin erosion ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Tjuh Audited Financial Statements 2025; 2025-11-13)), but cushion is shrinking.
Downside Scenario: • Additional health-plan underwriting losses or slower expense containment push operating margin below -2% and cash burn accelerates (Signals 1-58-66). • Failure to refinance the $347 mm 2025 maturity on competitive terms amid higher leverage (Signals 15-3) could force asset sales or covenant waivers, shifting stance toward Immediate Attention.
Upside Scenario: • Rapid post-merger synergies narrow operating deficit to near break-even and stabilize cash flows, allowing internal liquidity to cover maturities without new debt. • Asset-reallocation or non-operating gains similar to FY-2025’s $2.9 bn boost ((Thomas Jefferson University and its Obligated Group Jefferson Posts $196M Operating Loss In Fiscal 2025 Staff Relief Inc; 2025-11-13)) rebuild covenant headroom, moving classification back to Stable.
Near-Term Catalysts (3-9 months): 1) December-2025 interim operating results; 2) financing plan for FY-2025 principal payments; 3) updated MTI coverage test after LVHN integration.

Appendix

FY-2025 Consolidated Financial Statements & Notes; Aug. 22 2025; various pages.
FY-2025 Management Discussion & Analysis; Nov. 14 2025; various pages.
Master Trust Indenture excerpt; Nov. 14 2025; p.12.
Official Statement – Series 2024B-E; Nov./Dec. 2024; p. cover-14.
Data QA Notes: All ratings labelled “NR” consistent with Current Rating input. No conflicting rating data observed. Absence of covenant coverage ratios limits precision of cushion assessment. Trend dataset not provided; analysis therefore trend-light.
Full Signal Details: see CLEANED_SIGNALS list (IDs 1-100).

Related Signals

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